Thirst for Foreign Capital
Jan27th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar
Concerned about the fall in FII investments and the financing of the growing current account deficit, the government has allowed a new group of foreign investors to invest directly in India's equity markets. To the extent that the measure is successful, it would mark a transition towards allowing greater presence of speculative players in the Indian markets.
India's External Sector
Jan11th 2012, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Even before global currents caused relatively rapid outflows of mobile finance capital from India, the Indian economy was vulnerable on the external front. The recent pattern of growth that has been reliant on capital inflows to generate domestic credit-driven bubbles, rather than trade surpluses is not sustainable and puts the economy at greater risk.
Prospects for the World Economy in 2012
Dec 27th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
2011 revealed that the much vaunted economic recovery after the Great Recession was not inherently sustainable, as the recent problems of global capitalism, including those associated with excessive debt build-up, were reflected in new areas and caused economic slowdown across the world. Against the backdrop of economic trends in 2011, this article assesses the prospects for the world economy in 2012.
The Lurking Debt Problem
Dec 19th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Rising interest rates in the domestic market have been encouraging large firms in the Indian corporate sector to resort to foreign borrowing to finance domestic expenditures. In particular, there has been significant rise in the shares of commercial borrowings and short-term debt in total external debt. This tendency is increasing external vulnerability.
Why are Women's Health Outcomes in India so Poor?
Nov 29th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Women's health outcomes in India are generally much worse than in comparator countries, despite two decades of very rapid growth in India. Public spending on health as a share of GDP has not increased, and per capita spending on immunisation and primary health centres has actually gone down.
Employment Shifts after the Global Crisis
Oct 4th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The stagnation of employment in developed countries and apparent recovery in developing countries after the Great Recession of 2008-09 have renewed perceptions of a global shift in employment to the developing world, particularly in manufacturing activities. This article uses the most recent available ILO data to examine the extent to which such a shift is actually occurring.
The Persistent Global Crisis
Sep 22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
World financial leaders gather at Washington for the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF amid fears of another global recession. But the perspective and will needed to address the problem appear to be absent.
Higher Education: Dealing with higher expectations
Sep 7th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
There has been a significant increase in enrolment in higher education in developing countries (especially Asia) in the past decade. However, this positive change also brings forth certain challenges, the most obvious of which is the challenge of generating enough employment to meet expectations of growing numbers of new graduates.
The Global Recession and India
Aug 29th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
With global growth slowing and financial markets experiencing a downturn, the fallout for India is a matter of concern. The channels through which these effects could be transmitted are more in number than conventionally recognised.
Women's Work in India: Has anything changed?
Aug 9th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
One of the striking features of the latest National Sample Survey round results is the apparent decline in female employment in 2009-10 compared to 2004-05. The other depressing feature that emerges from the survey is that economic growth has still not generated a process of employment diversification for women.
Deciphering Employment Trends
Jul 26th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
One distinctive feature of the labour market in India is the fact that casual work in the construction sector has been the main source of employment during a period when India transited to its much-celebrated high-growth trajectory.
The Latest Employment Trends from the NSSO
Jul 14th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The results of the latest NSSO large survey on employment and unemployment provide crucial evidence on the pattern of inadequate job creation in this phase of high economic growth.
India's Schizophrenic Banks
Jun 29th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The release of the third of the Financial Stability Reports being prepared by the RBI provides new information on the state and behaviour of the Indian banking system. While banks appear well capitalised and their balance sheets robust, at the margin they seem to be embracing too much risk.
Public Spending on Education in India
Jun 29th 2011, Jayati Ghosh
The failure of the government to provide universal access to quality schooling and to ensure equal access to higher education among all socio-economic groups as well as across gender and region has significant implications for equitable socio-economic advancement. Ensuring a reasonable quality of education to all children will necessarily require a significant expansion of the public resources to be provided.
Food Price Transmission in South Asia
Jun 14th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The recent increase in global food prices has once again set off alarm signals in developing countries, especially in South Asia, where food inflation has been a major problem for some years now. Evidence from South Asian countries corroborates the fact that domestic factors do play a role in the international transmission; while rising global prices put upward pressure on domestic prices in a much rapid manner, its downward movements are less rapidly or effectively transmitted and often do not have any such impact.
International Banks in Emerging Markets
Jun 2nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The presence and growth of foreign banks in emerging markets pose important challenges, both for these countries and the international financial system. Yet the debate on banking re-regulation before and after the crisis focuses largely on the experience of the developed countries, ignoring the implications of developments in the emerging economies.
The Left and Elections in West Bengal
May 18th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Assembly elections in West Bengal have resulted in defeat of the Left Front government after 34 years in power. However, a detailed look at the voting shares shows that the Left parties still managed to garner more than 41 per cent of the votes which by no means can be taken as showing a big decline in popular support for the Left among the people in the state.
Revisiting Capital Flows
May 4th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
In a recent move the IMF surprised many by revising its position on the use of capital controls and making a case for them in special circumstances. It has followed this up with an analysis of capital flows to developing countries, which also explains its partial rethink on the use of capital controls by developing countries.
Health Outcomes across the Major Indian States
Apr 20th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
An examination of the most recent health outcome indicators across the major Indian states throws up some surprising results. In this article, the authors consider the evidence on infant mortality and maternal mortality rates and show how the various states are ranked quite differently as compared to when GDP growth rate is taken as the primary indicator of progress.
Whither Industrial Growth?
Apr 8th 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
The recent deceleration in month-on-month IIP growth rates has given the government cause for concern. One possible argument that explains the medium term industrial growth trends is that the process of unwinding of the fiscal stimulus was not accompanied by any neutralising surge in debt-financed private investment and consumption. However, it is too early to conclude with confidence that this is what is happening.
The Transmission of Global Food Prices
Mar 22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Global food prices are spiking once again, creating fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. Given that recent domestic food price changes in different Asian countries point to a broader trend whereby they have been strongly related to international price changes, this is a matter of extreme concern.
The Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
Feb 22nd 2011, C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
There has been much media celebration about the recent signing of the Japan-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. This article examines some of the features of the agreement and considers their implications for domestic economic strategies and processes in India.
Food Prices and Distribution Margins in India
Feb 3rd 2011, Jayati Ghosh
To look at corporate retail as the solution to the current food price increase seems to be foolish as the recent evidence on distribution margins indicates that the countrywide share of corporate retail in food distribution is estimated to have tripled in the past four years and the retail food prices have shown the greatest increase. Instead, creating a viable and effective public distribution system in essential commodities is an immediate requirement.
Public Works and Wages in Rural India
Jan 11th 2011, C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh
Data from the 64th Round of the National Sample Survey, which was specifically concerned with migration and employment conditions, allow for an examination of trends in real wages and the impact of the MNREGS on wages and unemployment. In this article, the authors consider the evidence of these effects on the work conditions of rural casual labour, especially women workers.
(Un)Common Suffering: Distributional impact of recent inflation in India
Jan 6th 2011, Rajarshi Majumder and Subhadip Ghosh
Recent inflation in India is special both because of its peaks and its persistence. It is argued that unlike during 2008-09, recent inflation is due to structural problems. Further, a distributional analysis reveals that its impact is not shared equally. People in the lower income groups have been facing uncommon difficulties, as their purchasing power seems to have been halved over the last four years.
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